Reversal? Stay cautious stay optimistic

There are four major risks in buying, selling or using Bitcoin and other virtual currencies, such as market, transaction, technology, and compliance. Before reading, please ensure that you have a sufficient understanding of the market and its risks. The following content is personal experience and thoughts, and should not be used as any in accordance with.

Hello, everyone, I’m Peipei. I used to say that 312 was going to buy the bottom at that time. But there is gold everywhere, but now I can feel it. In fact, this extreme market is still difficult to copy. I have been in the past two days. There are some orders. Of course, no group friends are excellent. If the current price is concerned, some may have just made a profit, and some prices have been set low and have not been listed. Therefore, I also think it is more difficult to truly say that it can be successful. It may be relatively easy to diversify the risk by buying in batches over a long period of time.

Today’s situation I would think of it more as a rebound. After all, the 519 fell is already oversold. Coupled with the panic this weekend, when the market goes to an extreme, it is normal for the price to be repaired. The key is behind us. How to go, is it going up in order to have more momentum to fall, or is it possible to reverse?

This seems to be unclear for the time being. Today is considered to be relatively strong, but the overall trend line is still in a downward trend. In addition, today, we can still feel the heat of each group and the orders of the bottom hunters. Compare the previous 312. And 94, I feel that even if it is still in the bull market, there will still be a cooling-off period, so we should remain rational and cautious next.

Regarding being cautious, I would like to mention two more points. One is that there is no more news. What I saw today is an article in the Economic Information Daily. From the line between the lines, the main targets may be more financial institutions, These are payment institutions, not ordinary consumers, so it is possible that there will be no announcements and other dynamics later, or more internal implementations, but what will eventually be the form, especially whether there are changes in the mining part, It’s still not certain, and it will take time in the middle.

If you are interested, you can check the stock price of Alibaba Meituan in the past few months, and then search for what happened before, so I think the better situation is to calm down for a while to reduce the heat and clean up the chaos, otherwise I don’t know it will Will not face a more severe situation.

The other is that after this wave, I also saw news that Tesla and Meitu have lost, and the micro strategy did not lose, but I also bought a part at a high position before. Regarding these big positions, you can read more bitcointreasuries. org website, currently it will give a reference cost calculation (note that there may be a delay in the data).

In comparison, it seems that Meitu is a bit miserable, but it needs to be understood that the more powerful the company, the more the holding assets of this company. They will not say like wine and food. They will cry today and laugh tomorrow. Many do not care about this cost so much. Yes, for their size, you only need to pay attention to the probability of profitability in a certain period of time. Others are secondary. The same is true for many large funds. You may see that the market is still falling after they buy. What people want is to be able to buy this bargaining chip. As for whether there is a cheaper bargaining chip, it is secondary, so follow the big whale operation. If your tolerance is not strong enough, there is no use for eggs, so I see the loss news. , Don’t laugh at it.

However, in this wave, the cost of many institutions is in the range of 20,000 U to 30,000 U, including this wave that has not been cut to the grandson. Is it better to make this piece also a little uncomfortable and surrender? We don’t know. I don’t dare to ask, I personally will prepare a part of the funds to prevent unexpected situations from happening, but I also hope that they will not be used.

In the end, let’s talk about optimism. You can still be optimistic about the long-term, because most intuitive preferences are to overestimate the short-term and underestimate the long-term. I hope you can reverse it. First, you must make clear the bottom-level logic. Crypto assets are currently It is something that circulates globally. It is not the same thing as the old Wenwan tea and so on. What’s more, the current environment overseas is not the same as it was a few years ago.

In addition, regarding the mining industry, it may still be a bit uncertain. I looked at btc.com’s computing power and it seems that it hasn’t dropped too much recently. I can pay more attention to it later. If there are changes, the data will still change. Seeing what a blogger said, I think there is some truth. Now domestic costs are very low compared to the world. There are areas with lower costs, but also small countries with fewer minerals. If in the future, domestic If this part is really to be migrated, the mining cost of the entire network may increase, which may be beneficial to the long-term network value.

Concluding remarks

In any case, in the face of the short-term market, we must remain rational and cautious, and in particular, we must keep a low profile. Also, we must not use leverage without hedging. This is also the impact of this wave, and we should be able to see it. Come on, in such a high volatility market, even if it is 2 times, there is a zero risk. Personally, I don’t particularly recommend that you still have some illusions and flukes in this big environment. The premise of maintaining optimism is to do the worst. Plan.