Large-scale institutions “do long against the market” quietly stand opposite to small and medium investors

On March 6, the CFTC announced the latest CME Bitcoin Futures Weekly Report (February 24 to March 2). During the latest statistical cycle, the price of BTC almost stagnated. Although the market changed during the week, the entire statistical cycle ended. The actual fluctuation range of the domestic price was less than 100 US dollars. The market fell sharply in the last statistical cycle and the decline came to an end. However, the price has not been able to achieve a considerable price increase. After the sharp decline, the market sentiment was bearish in the sideways. Affect the continued fermentation.

The total number of positions (the total number of open positions) in the latest data has plummeted from 10572 to 8068. This value hit a new low in nearly 21 weeks. After the sharp drop in the market, various accounts are eager to reduce their positions and risk control. An atmosphere of panic gathered quickly.

In terms of sub-data, long positions of the largest dealers rebounded from 332 to 376, short positions dropped sharply from 464 to 137, and long and short (hedged) positions dropped from 62 to 42. Dealer accounts unexpectedly carried out a fairly clear net long position adjustment in the latest statistical period. This is not consistent with the bearish atmosphere of a sharp decline in the total market position after the market fell. This means that this type of account has been after the market has stopped falling. On the contrary, the attitude towards the market outlook has turned back to an optimistic situation first. Taking into account that before the market crash actually occurs, such accounts have carried out contrarian and biased air-conditioning warehouses in advance to accurately predict the direction of the market. In this week’s report, this kind of position adjustment that also appears to be “adverse to the market” may be regarded as a large institution’s response to the market. The new “pre-judgment” of BTC’s market outlook stopping falling and turning up.

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The long positions of asset management institutions rose slightly from 314 to 323, and the short positions further rose from 551 to 643. This value continued to hit a new high in the past 28 weeks, and two-way positions remained unchanged at 0. In an environment where the total market position has fallen sharply, asset management agencies have also carried out a “contrarian” two-way simultaneous increase in long and short holdings. Although the increase in short positions has been more impressive, for this type of account that has continued to reduce long positions in the past three statistical periods, the increase in long positions after the market has stopped falling is also a kind of optimism. A sign of a return to attitude.

From the perspective of the largest dealers and asset management agencies in the latest statistical cycle, although the rebound in the short-term BTC price is limited, institutional investors are not obsessed with the short-selling idea of ​​reducing their holdings in the past period of time, but Started to increase long positions quite aggressively. At least judging from the signals revealed by the agency’s position adjustment, BTC’s mid-term upward momentum may return in the short term.

In the latest statistical cycle, the long positions of the leveraged fund accounts fell sharply from 2,633 to 1,757, the short positions fell from 7,639 to 5563, and the two-way positions fell from 608 to 572. The sharp drop in total market positions is mainly “attributable” to the “contributions” of leveraged funds in the latest statistical cycle. This type of account is still very determined to continue to reduce its positions significantly when the market has temporarily stopped falling. It can be considered that such accounts are still pessimistic about the market outlook, and this also represents that the majority of market participants in the market are in the latest The bearish sentiment during the statistical period.

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In terms of large positions, long positions fell sharply from 3,650 to 2,419, a four-week low. Short positions dropped from 259 to 168, and two-way positions rose from 81 to 114. The large accounts did not adhere to the idea of ​​“one-off” long in the last statistical cycle, but underwent considerable position reductions in the latest statistical cycle. Therefore, the accounts mentioned in the previous weekly report are biased towards the market. Many judgments may be due to the fact that such accounts lag slightly behind the pace of price fluctuations in the adjustment of positions. At least from the perspective of the adjustment performance in the latest statistical cycle, the major players are not optimistic about the trend of the market outlook.

In terms of retail holdings, long positions fell from 2,892 to 2,465, which hit a new low in nearly 32 weeks, and short positions fell from 908 to 829 at the same time. In the latest statistical cycle, retail accounts once again slashed their long positions, which were also obviously affected by the weak shocks after the sharp drop, which caused some panic about the market outlook for further deepening of the bottom.

In the latest statistical cycle, large institutions have formed a very subtle form of “antagonism” with small and medium institutions and retail investors. Large institutions have begun to lay out multiple orders in advance before the price has rebounded significantly, which can be regarded as this type of Regarding the predictions for the market outlook revealed by accounts that are more sensitive to market trends during the adjustment of positions, it remains to be seen whether large institutions will once again contribute to the “superior prediction”.

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Author/ Translator: Jamie Kim
Bio: Jamie Kim is a technology journalist. Raised in Hong Kong and always vocal at heart. She aims to share her expertise with the readers at Kim is a Bitcoin maximalist who believes with unwavering conviction that Bitcoin is the only cryptocurrency – in fact, currency – worth caring about.